According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 23rd, in the first 10 months of this year, China’s foreign trade exports were 957.36 billion U.S. dollars, down 20.5% year-on-year; imports were 798.13 billion U.S. dollars, down 19% year-on-year. As the export price fell by 6.4%, after deducting the price factor, the export decreased by 15.1%, which was 1.1 percentage points lower than the decline in the previous nine months; the import price fell by 16.9% overall. After deducting the price factor, the import volume decreased by 2.5%. The monthly decline narrowed by 1 percentage point.
October data did not exceed expectations or was related to less workdays
Among them, in October of that month, China’s foreign trade exports reached 110.76 billion U.S. dollars. After deducting the price factor, the number of exports decreased by 5.6%, which was 1.1 percentage points lower than the decline in September; the import volume was 86.78 billion U.S. dollars, after deducting the price factor, the import volume increased by 6.8%. It was 7.1 percentage points lower than that in September.
Although the monthly export value in October exceeded $100 billion for four consecutive months, exports did not recover as strongly as the market expected. Industrial Bank (market stocks) senior economist Lu political commissar (blog) said that the number of working days in October this year is relatively small, so that the situation of export improvement is not obvious in the year-on-year data. According to past experience, except for October 2008, since 2000, the number of working days has a very good correspondence with the import and export. Therefore, this does not mean that China's export improvement situation has once again stalled.
Bilateral trade to the US is better than Europe and Japan
Since the beginning of this year, increasingly frequent trade has also adversely affected China's export situation. According to statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, 19 countries initiated 88 trade remedy investigations on Chinese products, involving a total of 10.2 billion US dollars. The number of investigation cases and the total number of cases involved increased by 29% and 125% respectively over the same period of the previous year. In particular, the recent US move to trade protection of Chinese products has caused people to worry whether trade friction will affect China's foreign trade situation.
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