Expansion of the market too big Senma children's franchisee lack of enthusiasm

With the adjustment of the domestic demand market, the children's apparel market has gradually become hot and hot. Many domestic apparel manufacturers started their footwork in domestic demand. Semir apparel is the leader in casual sportswear in China. However, Semir clothing has begun to experience difficulties in this area Act of. Casual wear industry as a whole is facing the advent of passive plus inventory cycle: 2011 full-year CPI reached 5.4%, under the background of inflation, sales of casual wear industry are affected, resulting in a rise in inventory overstocking apparel enterprises. Direct share of the company, its inventory reflected in the report; join the system accounted for high companies, reporting inventory lighter, the inventory is mainly backlog in the franchisee there, and then affect the order situation next year. In the hands of the company's terminal franchisees, some inventories have been made in 11 years, making the situation of the 12-year ordering fair slightly decrease year-on-year, but the amount of the 12-year spring fairings is still expected to grow by more than 20% -30%. Store sales throughout the year lower than expected: 2011 listed company plans to develop the next three years, children's clothing and casual wear each set 700-800 stores, and then due to excessive rent increases, franchisee confidence is not high constraints, Direct And the opening of the franchise are progressing lower than expected. Children's clothing store opened slightly better situation, it is estimated that around 700 throughout the year, while less casual clothes, an estimated 600 or so. Fourth quarter sales slowed down: Since the fourth quarter, the weather in all parts of the country has been warmer and the winter weather has been late. The sales in winter clothes have been sluggish due to the weather. In 2011H1, the revenue from casual clothes increased by 32% and that for children's clothes by 58%. However, in the fourth quarter, Casual wear sales growth is slow, this is one of the reasons franchisee shop to slow down. However, children's clothing sales growth is still strong. In 2012, the company's products and models increased by more than 20%, adhere to the rich category to stimulate sales growth strategy, so we look forward to 12 years of casual clothes can gradually out of the adjustment period. Fourth quarter gross margins fell, but the year can maintain the level of last year: 2011Q3, the company gross profit margin was 36.44%. In the fourth quarter, the discount of competitors was large and the sales of products were sluggish. As a result, the winter discount of the company was greatly discounted. Although the retail price of winter clothes rose by 10%, the forecast discount had a certain impact on the gross profit margin of the quarter. However, at the same time, the product generally maintains a 3.5-fold calculation. It is our consistent strategy to maintain a stable gross profit margin for the whole year. The cost rate increased: As the headquarter relocated from Wenzhou to Shanghai in 2011, a large amount of additional expenses were incurred in staffing and Other expenses related to the Company's listing and store marketing expenses. Therefore, we estimate that the full-year expense ratio Up more than 3%. Earnings forecast: EPS is estimated at 11.3 yuan, 2.28 yuan and 2.77 yuan respectively in 11-13 years, reaching 23% in three years. The company's leading position in the children's wear industry is still unshakable, and casual wear needs a few years of high growth Adjustment period, but long-term growth trend unchanged.

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