figure 1
In 2016, due to the influence of G20, the demand for various links in the polyester industry chain was extended, and the demand for European and American holiday orders overlapped. In the overall rising atmosphere of bulk commodities, the main price of PTA at that time was the highest at 5,912 yuan/ton on February 14, 2017. The other links in the industrial chain also rushed to the high point of the year in the same period of time. However, with the suspension of reverse repurchase by the central bank after the year, the funds tightened, and the commodity market experienced a high retracement. In addition, the stock of the polyester industry chain accumulated during the Spring Festival holiday. Impact, the polyester industry chain as a whole, the largest decline in the PTA1709 contract has recorded 19.43%.
figure 2
For PTA, external factors such as funds will affect its trend, but the fundamentals are still the key to affecting the trend of PTA. From the above picture, due to the influence of the Spring Festival holiday, PTA monthly social inventory is rapidly accumulated, in 2-3 months. Higher than the historical level, the inventory pressure of supply and the tightening of funds during the post-war period (from the market phenomenon of the price of 210 + low-cost shipments can also be seen), the spot price of PTA has a large Downstream, the falling rate is faster than the raw material end, and the rapid shrinkage of PTA processing fee is reduced from 600+ yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, and individual time is lower than 300 yuan/ton. Subsequently, PTA production enterprises began to enter the relatively concentrated maintenance season, until the end has not yet ended (Hengli, Tianjin Petrochemical, Hanbang Petrochemical), PTA is in the destocking cycle, the price decline has finally slowed down.
image 3
From the comparison of the above work, it also reveals the destocking process of PTA. From March, PTA-PET started to have the difference between supply and demand scissors. Up to now, with the maintenance of Hengli Petrochemical 1 line, the supply and demand scissors have been expanded again, and the industry is still in stock. carry on.
Figure 4
On the other hand, downstream demand, the domestic new polyester production capacity in the first half of the year totaled 1.77 million tons (万凯550,000 tons of polyester flakes, Anxing color fiber expansion of 70,000 tons of polyester staple fiber, Tongkun Hengbang Phase II 30 10,000 tons of polyester filament, Jiangyin Chengxing 600,000 tons of polyester flakes, Yisheng Hainan 250,000 tons of polyester flakes) another 1 million tons of long-stop polyester plant re-production, and the corresponding PTA, Only Pengwei 900,000 tons / year device resumed production. Therefore, after the polyester product festival, the inventory is relatively smooth and maintained at a low level and a good export background, the profit is well protected to ensure the start-up and production enthusiasm of downstream polyester enterprises. What's more, the terminal market has been surging in the near future, and it has been affected by the special environmental protection of water jet loom to eliminate the backward production capacity, which has caused the market to expect the reduction of the supply of conventional varieties in the later period, especially the polyesters corresponding to polyester taffeta, chiffon and Chun Yafang. The sales of silk FDY are hot. Therefore, in the context of destocking, good sales, and prosperous profits, the off-season of polyester is not weak, and the just-needed presence also magnifies the inspection effect of PTA.
Written here, seeing a reduction in supply, stable demand and no pressure on the overall inventory, sales are still very hot, the problem is coming, how does PTA not rise?
In fact, the author believes that the above description is indeed good but not enough to make the TA completely reversed in the short term.
Figure 5
First of all, according to the author's visit, due to the TA factory maintenance and downstream stability just need to be affected, the current PTA spot market circulation is indeed tight, individual factory inventory is also very low, coupled with some downstream enterprises to buy more, the TA basis narrowing process accelerates The spot price is indeed relatively strong, but the overall inventory is placed there, some of the factory inventory is not low, that is to say, the current inventory distribution is uneven, from the above processing fee, for a PTA such a hedge participation is higher In terms of products, excellent processing fees will attract selling pressure, while for PX, the current profit level is quite satisfactory, and the TA maintenance season brings about a reduction in PX consumption, while the crude oil end is due to OPEC and US production. He long, the production limit has lost the original effect. After all, TA is a cost-priced product, so the staged excellent processing fee and the upstream weakness have become the key to dragging TA. The current performance of the downstream is certainly good, but more to hear from the polyester wire, and then refinement is FDY, and the performance of the bottle and the FDY can be described as a world of difference, after all, the downstream needs to look at the whole, not to mention, Due to the hot sales brought about by the special rectification of water jet loom, from the perspective of overall production and sales, the sustainability is not good, and there is suspicion of overdrafting future demand. Therefore, the author believes that the short-term TA can rebound but it is difficult to reverse, paying attention to the effectiveness of the main 40-pressure. If you look at it for a longer period of time, if the downstream terminal is doing the best-selling inventory in the future demand for overdraft, and then consider that the Xianglu 1.5 million tons TA device is still ready to go, Tongkun’s 2.2 million tons of production is expected to exist at the end of the year. Half-year performance in the peak season is even worse.
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