FX168 Financial News (Hong Kong) News Spot gold on Monday (April 30) fell sharply after the sharp decline, the US market hit a low of 1310.11 US dollars / ounce, the first time since December last year fell below the 200-day moving average, the price of gold has Break the 1320 mark and further test the 1310 mark. The US dollar continued to rise, the US dollar index was close to the 92 mark, and the highest hit 91.91. The recent rise in the US dollar suppressed the buying interest of gold.
The data released during the day was mixed. The data shows that the US core PCE price index in March is 1.9%, which is higher than the previous value. The US monthly personal expenditure rate is 0.4% in March, which is higher than the previous value. The US PMI in April is 57.6, which is higher than The previous value was 57.4 but lower than the expected 57.9, down 1.1% year-on-year, the largest year-on-year decline in 15 months; the US March home sales index was 0.4%, lower than the previous value of 3.1% and expected 0.9%; The shortage of properties sold once again restricted sales activities; the US Dallas Fed’s commercial activity index for April was 21.8, higher than the previous value of 21.4 but lower than expected.
This week's impact on the gold market will be two heavy meetings and an important piece of data. There will be two heavyweight conferences this week that will attract the attention of the world. One is the Fed FOMC meeting to be held on Tuesday; the other is the China-US trade negotiation conference. The market expects that the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday will not change much. Since the meeting does not include press conferences or economic forecast updates, any signs of steep inflation expectations should support the prospect of three interest rate hikes in 2018 instead of two. Times. If the Fed is willing to raise interest rates in June, this should be reflected in a tough statement. The United States and China will hold high-level trade negotiations this week, which is likely to avoid Sino-US trade wars. The March employment report, which will be released on Friday, is expected to add 195,000 jobs in April, while the unemployment rate is expected to fall from 4.1% to 4%.
From a technical point of view, the price of gold once again fell below the 1320 mark and the 200-day moving average. The gold price will next test the spot support at $1310, further supporting the important psychological level at 1300, and further looking at the 50-week moving average at $1,295. On the upside, if it returns to above $1,320, the next resistance will look at the 50-day moving average of $1,300, and further resistance will be $1,340 and $1,350. The break will see the high of $1,366 during the year. On the daily technical indicators, the MACD green kinetic energy column continues to expand, the double-line dead fork, the stochastic indicator is downward; in the Bollinger channel, the gold price approaches the lower rail and the short-term moving average is downward.
Monday's trend statement
International spot gold Monday (April 30) Asian market opened at 132.27 US dollars / ounce in early trading, the price of gold rose briefly, recorded an intraday high of 132.43 US dollars / ounce and then fell, the price of gold shocked down. The European gold price continued its decline, and it rebounded in the session but it was a short-lived one. The US gold price increased the decline. After hitting an intraday low of 1310.11 US dollars per ounce, it bottomed out and the gold price fluctuated upwards. However, the gains failed to fall again and again, and finally closed at $1314.95 per ounce.
International spot gold Monday (April 30) Asian market opened at 132.27 US dollars / ounce in early trading, the lowest test of 1310.11 US dollars / ounce, the highest rose to 1324.93 US dollars / ounce, and finally closed at 1314.95 US dollars / ounce, down 7.32 US dollars, a decrease of 0.55 %.
Fundamental positive factors:
1. The US Richmond Fed manufacturing index for April released on Tuesday (April 24) was -3, well below the previous value of 15 and expectations of 16.
2. The US Dallas Fed's commercial activity index for April released on Tuesday (April 24) was 21.8, higher than the previous value of 21.4 but lower than expected.
2. The March leading index of the US March Conference Board announced on Thursday (April 19) was 0.3%, lower than the previous value and expected to have a smaller impact.
3. On Monday (April 16), the US New York Fed manufacturing index for April was 15.8, lower than the previous value of 22.5 and the expected 18.6; the US NAHB real estate market index for April was 69, slightly lower than the previous value of 70 and expected 70. , Lido gold and silver.
4. On Friday (April 13), the initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index released in April was 97.8, lower than the previous value of 101.4 and the expected 100.5, which is good for gold and silver.
Fundamental negative factors:
1. Data released on Monday (April 30) showed that the US core PCE price index in March was 1.9%, which was higher than the previous value. The US monthly personal expenditure rate was 0.4% in March, which was higher than the previous value. .
2. Data released on Monday (April 30) showed that the US PMI in April was 57.6, higher than the previous value of 57.4 but lower than the expected 57.9, down 1.1% year-on-year, the largest year-on-year decline in 15 months.
3. Data released on Monday (April 30) showed that the US monthly home sales index was 0.4%, lower than the previous value of 3.1% and expected 0.9%; again restricted sales activities due to insufficient sales properties
4. The important data released on Friday (April 27) is the US first quarter GDP report, with a growth rate of 2.3%, which is better than expected. It was previously expected to rise by 1.8%, and the fourth quarter of last year was an increase of 2.9%. The zero-hedged US first-quarter GDP data said that although consumer performance fell to a low level in five years, the US first-quarter GDP performance was still stronger than expected.
Outlook outlook
1.FX168 Financial News (Hong Kong) News Kitco's weekly gold survey released on Friday (April 27) showed that despite the poor gold gains last week, the market has slightly different views on this week's trend, but more than half of it. Respondents are still bullish on gold this week, with average investors being more optimistic about short-term prospects. In the survey of Wall Street professionals, 23 people participated in the survey, 12 people, or 52% think that gold will rise this week, 5 people or 22% think that gold will fall this week, 6 people or 26% Gold believes it will consolidate. Market participants include gold traders, investment banks, futures traders and technical analysts. In the survey of ordinary investors, 903 people participated in the survey, 522 people, or 58% think that gold will rise this week, 295 people or 33% think that gold will fall this week, 86 people or 10% I think gold will be consolidating.
2. Information website Economies.com said in a report released on Monday (April 30) that gold continues to trade around negative trading below $13.148/oz. Random fluctuations show negative information, keeping the intraday bearish trend effective, and need to be reminded that One target is $1301.20 per ounce, and the price of gold below $1,354.40 per ounce is an important condition for continued decline.
3. German commercial bank said in a report released on Monday (April 30) that at the beginning of the new trading week, gold has fallen below $1,320 per ounce. “One factor that measures prices is still that the dollar is strong.†“There is a sign that the North Korean conflict is easing, indicating that gold currently lacks solid demand as a safe-haven asset. After North Korean leader Kim Jong-un held a historic meeting with South Korean President Yue Mingen North Korea appears to be preparing to close its nuclear test facility in the northeastern part of the country."
4.FXs Chief Market Strategist Hussein Sayed said in a report released on Monday (April 30) that foreign exchange traders will monitor US inflation data, the FOMC meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and this week's non-agricultural monthly employment report. To determine whether to continue pushing up the dollar exchange rate. Analysts pointed out that attention will be turned to the Federal Open Market Committee's statement on Wednesday later this week. Although the market does not expect any change in policy, the conference will not hold a press conference or economic forecast update, but any signs of steep inflation expectations should support the prospect of three interest rate hikes in 2018, not twice.
5. Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, believes that gold will fall as some bullish traders close their positions. He had thought that the monthly gold would test the recent low of $1,309 per ounce. Kevin Grady said "The news from South Korea is very positive. As US interest rates rise, the dollar looks strong."
6. Adrian Day, President and CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management, also saw a short-term weakness in gold. He believes that "the dollar seems to have changed, at least temporarily, but there may be more power in the next week or longer, and the dollar seems to be the biggest driver of gold at present. This is only a temporary view because we think The dollar is largely overvalued, especially in Asian currencies, and other factors are good for gold."
7. Morrison Market Communications Editor Ken Morrison commented that a rise in short-term interest rates and a stronger US dollar may mean that the gold test is near $1310, and has fallen since each break in January. Morrison said that "in the short term, there may be enough global uncertainty (trade tariffs and US decisions on the Iranian agreement) to keep the market above $1310, but gold is in an unstable state, and the breakthrough will support downside risks. Open to $1,280. I expect gold trading to reach $1,300 next week."
Focus on Tuesday
21:45 US April Markit manufacturing PMI final value
22:00 US April ISM Manufacturing PMI
US March construction expenditure monthly rate
02:30 The next day, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks to the Yellowknife Chamber of Commerce
04:30 Next day US to April 27th week API crude oil inventory
Proofreading: Sui Bin
(Editor: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)
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