Continued warming up of foreign trade still needs to be consolidated

In the past August, China’s foreign trade basically continued its upward trend. Export growth was slightly adjusted back in July. Imports remained weak, and the trade surplus once again set a new high for a single month.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 8th, in August, China’s total value of imports and exports was 2.26 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.9% year-on-year. Among them, exports were 1.28 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.2% year-on-year. Although the growth rate was down from the 14.1% growth rate in the previous month, it was still 9% better than the market expected.

Compared with exports that have been warming for two consecutive months, imports reflecting changes in domestic demand have remained negative. In August, China's imports of 0.98 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.4%; in the "outside of the warm and cold" trade pattern, the monthly trade surplus in August reached a single monthly record, reaching 306.1 billion yuan, an increase of 76%.

“Because of the economic recovery in Europe and the United States, stable external demand is one of the important reasons for driving the high growth of exports in August.” Zheng Yuesheng, spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs, said that thanks to the economic recovery in Europe and the United States and the traditional foreign trade season In the coming months, it is expected that China’s foreign trade exports will maintain a certain upward momentum in the coming months.

In bilateral trade with major trading partners, China’s imports and exports to the EU, the United States, ASEAN, and Japan maintained growth. In the first eight months, the bilateral trade value of China and the EU was 2.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.9%. The total value of bilateral trade between China and the United States was 2.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.4%. The bilateral trade value between China and ASEAN was 1.85 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.2%. The total value of bilateral trade between China and Japan was 1.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.5%. The total value of bilateral trade between the Mainland and Hong Kong was 1.37 trillion yuan, a decrease of 17.9%.

Compared with the fluctuation of data, the changes in trade structure deserve attention. The data shows that in the first eight months of this year, China’s foreign trade structure has continued to optimize. Among them, the general trade import and export amounted to 9.32 trillion yuan, an increase of 5%, accounting for 54.9% of the total value of China's foreign trade, up by 2.3 percentage points over the same period of last year; during the same period, the processing trade import and export amounted to 5.35 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7%, accounting for total foreign trade. The value of 31.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the same period last year.

From the perspective of regional distribution, the pattern of China's foreign trade imports and exports has become more coordinated. Although the value of imports and exports of seven major foreign trade provinces and cities such as Guangdong and Jiangsu still accounted for 77.6% of the total value of China’s foreign trade, this figure dropped 2.1 percentage points from the same period of last year. Exports in the central and western regions maintained rapid growth. The export growth rates in Yunnan, Chongqing, Shaanxi, Guangxi, and Hunan were 49.5%, 45.7%, 34.2%, 28.2%, and 26.4%, respectively.

It is worth mentioning that in the first 8 months, exports of mechanical and electrical products, accounting for half of China’s exports, slightly declined by 0.5%, while exports of traditional products such as clothing, footwear, toys, and bags, etc., increased by 4.3%. .

In this regard, Li Jian, a researcher at the Institute of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce said that in this regard, external demand has improved and China’s traditional foreign trade products still have strong advantages. On the one hand, it is also related to the depreciation of the previous stage, especially The downside of the real exchange rate has supported the export of labor-intensive products. "However, the expansion of the trade surplus has brought about pressure on the appreciation of the ***. The export price advantage brought about by the exchange rate devaluation in the first half of the year will gradually disappear."

What needs attention is that the continued decline in imports has caused many market participants to worry about the lack of growth momentum behind the sluggish domestic demand. From the data point of view, the expansion of import declines is related to the decline of international bulk commodity prices to a certain extent, but it also highlights the current situation of insufficient domestic demand and greater downward pressure.

The latest issue of the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) shows that PMI dropped to a decline after 5 consecutive months in August, although the 51.1% figure is still the second highest point in the year, but it is down by 0.6% from July. . The index issued by the Customs for export in August was 41.9, which also fell from 0.7 in July.

"From a series of leading indicators, the current basis for the recovery of China's foreign trade needs to be further strengthened." Li Jian said that while promoting the steady growth of foreign trade, it is still necessary to accelerate the pace of transformation and upgrading in order to form a new competitive advantage of China's foreign trade.

“Since the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Customs clearance integration started, the customs of Beijing and Tianjin have accepted a total of 776,000 votes, which has a significant effect in promoting steady growth in foreign trade.” Zheng Yuesheng stated that with the promotion and promotion of the supervision and innovation measures of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, The upcoming implementation of the Yangtze River Delta customs clearance and other measures, more foreign trade companies will enjoy the dividends brought about by the trade facilitation reform.