International early shuttle
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On Wednesday (September 21), the Fed statement turned to the hawks, the dollar rose to a two-week high, the price of gold fell by 1%, the US oil rose to a four-month high, the price of gold fell below the $ 1,300 mark, the US stock market reached a new high, and the RMB exchange rate fell.
Market context
[RMB] Onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.5735 yuan at 23:30 on the 20th, up by 125 points on Tuesday night's closing price; the whole day turnover was US$22.610 billion, a decrease of US$1.778 billion from Tuesday.
Offshore RMB against the US dollar on the 21st 04:59 reported 6.5865 yuan, 17 points lower than the late New York Tuesday, and September 7th, the second highest in New York since May 2, 2016 (the late 6.4798 yuan in New York) 6.4869 yuan.
[ Monetary market] The US dollar index rose 0.7% to 92.426, the biggest one-day gain since August 4. The Fed insisted on the expectation of raising interest rates three times this year. The Fed announced that it would start shrinking in October as expected. Mexico’s peso rebounded and it fell after a strong earthquake.
The euro fell 0.8% against the dollar, at $1.1894 for the fourth day, and the dollar against the yen rose 0.5% to 112.17 yen.
The Mexican peso rose 0.2% against the US dollar to 17.76 pesos. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.6% against the US dollar at $0.7360, hitting a six-and-a-half-week high.
[Oil City] US oil rose to a four-month high, and the third quarter rose nearly 16%. When the US-Iranian relationship is tense, investors expect OPEC to decide to expand the oil production reduction agreement. The price difference between Buren and US crude oil has risen to over The highest level in two years.
WTI October crude oil futures closed up 0.93 US dollars on the delivery date, an increase of 1.88%, to 50.41 US dollars / barrel, a record high since May 24.
WTI November crude oil futures closed up 0.79 US dollars, or 1.60%, to 50.69 US dollars / barrel. Brent November crude oil futures closed up 1.15 US dollars, or 2.09%, to 56.29 US dollars / barrel.
[Golden market] Gold prices fell 1% on Wednesday, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, but hinted that it still expects to tighten credit before the end of the year.
Spot gold fell 1% to $1298.1 per ounce, spot silver fell 1.66% to $17.033 per ounce, and platinum fell 1.1.
8% reported 936.80 US dollars per ounce, palladium rose 0.32% to 911.40 US dollars per ounce.
[Stock market] The Dow hit a record high for seven consecutive days. The three major stock indexes rebounded after the Fed announced its contraction.
The S&P 500 index closed up 1.59 points, or 0.06%, to 2508.24 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 41.79 points, or 0.19%, to 22,412.59 points. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed down 5.28 points, or 0.08%. 6456.04 points.
The Russell 2000 index closed up 0.33% at 1454.42 points. The panic index VIX closed down 0.33% to 9.78, the lowest since July 26.
[ Debt City ] The two-year US Treasury yield rose 6.6 basis points after the Fed announced its contraction, hitting a high of 1.451% - the highest intraday since November 2008 (the highest level in the year was 3.1114 on June 13, 2008). %).
The 10-year US Treasury yield also rose by 5 basis points, refreshing the intraday high since August 8 to 2.289%.
Australia's three-year government bond yields rose 4.6 basis points to 2.236%, hitting an intraday high since December 2014. As the Fed announced its contraction in October, it followed the gains in overnight US bond yields.
Trading straregy
[RMB] The exchange rate is only a thermometer. The key to determining the exchange rate trend is still the Chinese economy itself. The trend of RMB depreciation in the short-term will not change, and entering the “7†era before 2018 is a high probability.
[The foreign exchange market] At present, the market believes that the Fed is more hawkish than expected," said Tim Alt, head of the exchange and interest rate department at Aviva Investors.
[Oil City] Abhishek Kumar, senior energy analyst at Global Gas Analytics at Interfax Energy, said. “Hurricane Harvey has limited impact on reducing the popularity of leading oil markets.â€
[Golden Market] "The Fed said that it began to reverse the quantitative easing policy, reducing the monthly bond by about 10 billion US dollars, still expecting to raise interest rates in December, and raising interest rates three times next year, which puts pressure on gold," Jeff Klearman, portfolio manager of GraniteShares Said.
[Stock Market] "Keeping interest rate hikes is expected, and the unexpected is the keynote. The market reaction is to interpret the Fed's slightly hawkish, but not too much," said Victor Jones, director of trading at TD Ameritrade.
Financial news
[ Fed statement ] Fed resolution statement: It is expected to raise interest rates once in 2017. It is expected to raise interest rates three times in 2018, raise interest rates twice in 2019, and raise interest rates once in 2020. The long-term neutral interest rate is lowered to 2.75% (previously expected to be 3.00%). According to the plan for July, the table began to shrink in October. The recent hurricane weather will affect short-term economic activity, but it is impossible to change the medium-term trend.
[ Trump ] US President Trump: In the abolition and replacement of the Obamacare reform law, there is now a good opportunity to work hard. In some cases, the Senate will be forced to reach an agreement.
[The OECD raised its forecast for China's economic growth in 2017 and 2018 ] China's economy is expected to grow by 6.8% in 2017 (previous expectations of 6.6%) and by 6.6% in 2018 (previous expectations of 6.4%). The global economy is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2017 (flat as expected in June) and increase by 3.7% in 2018 (previously expected 3.6%).
[ In the stock market: Baishi IPO fell back on the first day after the IPO ] Zhongdong shares closed up 0.25%, Baidu closed up 0.25%, Sina closed down 0.37%, Alibaba closed down 1.18%, Netease closed down 1.29%, Mogao fell 2.85%, Weibo closed down 4.31%; Baishi closed down 6.15% on the first day of trading in the US, at $10.52 (opening at $11.48, up 16.7% in intraday trading, hitting a high of $11.89, IPO price was 10 Dollar)
[ U.S. economic data is not good ] The US EIA crude oil inventories on September 15th was +45.11 million barrels, expected to be +39 million barrels, and the previous value was +588.80 million barrels. The total number of existing home sales in the United States in August was 5.35 million, a new 12-month low, with an expected 5.45 million, with a previous value of 5.44 million.
[ British economic data ] UK retail sales in August was 1% higher than the previous month, the largest increase in April; expected 0.2%, the previous value was revised from 0.3% to 0.6%.
Today's attention
20:30 US initial jobless claims for the week of September 16, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index in September
21:00 US July FHFA House Price Index
21:30 ECB President Mario Draghi speaks on financial stability
22:00 US August Conference Board Leading Indicators
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